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The Bright Side of H1N1

No, you can't get it from this. All around us are some pretty ominous signs:  this has been a wetter than normal year (at least here in the Midwest), flu seems to have started earlier than normal (seasonal influenza, that is), and last Spring we saw a lot of signs pointing to the influx of H1N1 influenza – globally.  If this is as bad as some folks are predicting, it could get to be as widespread as the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic – when over 600,000 folks in the US alone died.

Of course, many advances have occurred since 1918, and as such it is expected that the death rate will be dramatically less than the 2.5% of the infected rate that occurred then. First of all, these days we have vaccines available, albeit fewer doses than we’d hoped for by now.  Secondly, we have quite a few advance plans ready to go – school closings, business readiness and travel bans, to name a few – to help with management and containing the pandemic.  And thirdly, our treatments are far more advanced than what little was available back then.  But these reasons aren’t what I was referring to in the title of this post…

The Bright Side of H1N1

There are no absolutes in life, especially when it comes to global relations and economics… but I believe that in the evolution of the H1N1 pandemic to date we’ve seen some baby steps toward reconciliation – a more “normal” economic environment. While there are bound to be some short term negatives, global focus on resolving this pandemic quite likely will help to lead our worldwide economy out of the doldrums that we’ve been experiencing.  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s reasonable to think that we will see world markets rallying in short order.  In fact, the pandemic could lead to a dampening effect – but in the end result this could be good as well, by forestalling too-rapid growth in the economy, thereby negating inflationary concerns.

It’s not a sure thing by any stretch, but it’s my guess that we will come out of this crisis in much better condition than we’re going into it… what do you think?

Photo by Dan4th

401(kids)? A Rehash of the Coverdell

farmhouse hash by adactioWith much fanfare, Illinois congressman and US Senate candidate Mark Kirk (R-Illinois) has pushed his plan, adorably referred to as 401(kids) (see news story here).  But what is this plan he’s referring to?  Unless I’m missing something, this is the Coverdell ESA (Education Savings Account) that has been in existence for quite some time now.

Kirk’s primary beef is with the Illinois-based BrightStart 529 plan – which is mostly a swipe at one of his main opponents in the Senate race, Illinois’ Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, since BrightStart falls under Giannoulias’ responsibility.  Last year, one of the funds in the BrightStart plan, managed by Oppenheimer, was severely impacted by the fallout in the bond market due to overexposure in the derivatives market.  Negotiations between Oppenheimer and Giannoulias’ office are continuing, and investors are expected to receive some sort of remuneration soon.

So anyhow, as is often the case, in the heat of the moment during the economic fallout of last year, this 401(kids) plan was recommended.  It’s my contention that this plan is nothing new – the Coverdell ESA is pretty much exactly the same thing.  Let’s do a quick comparison between the proposed plan and the existing Coverdell ESA:

401(kids)

Coverdell ESA

Annual Limit

$2,000 per year

$2,000 per year

Tax Treatment

No tax deduction, earnings are not taxed if used for qualified education costs

No tax deduction, earnings are not taxed if used for qualified education costs

Other Limits

Can be used for education expenses at any accredited institution

Can be used for education expenses at any accredited institution

Additional

If not used for education, could be distributed for other purposes such as first home purchase; earnings would be subject to 10% penalty for non-qualified distribution

No other provisions for usage; earnings would be subject to 10% penalty for non-qualified distribution

So, other than the provision that these funds might also be used for a first-time home purchase, there’s no difference.  And consumers have already voted with their actions:  the Coverdell ESA is too little, too late.  With the miniscule annual funding amount (in comparison to the costs of college), paired together with the fact that there is no up-front tax benefit (as is available with the BrightStart plan for example), it seems that this proposed legislation is another example of unnecessary posturing-based law, with no or extremely low perceived benefit.

In fact, if the investor in a Coverdell or the new 401(kids) plan were to experience a similar issue as BrightStart investors did with Oppenheimer – how successful do you think the individual investors would be in negotiating remuneration on their own?  Don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor of less governmental involvement in most cases, but in this case I think the 529 plan wins out.

What do you think?

Photo by adactio

ARRA Projects – More Waste?

reinvestment-act-258x300In my travels last week, I came across the inevitable road construction that one finds every year at this time.  One thing that stood out for me was the effort that was made to ensure that you knew the project at hand was funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).  Something else stood out for me about those projects, though.

ARRA Waste?

Now, I’ve mentioned before that I’m no botanist.  For today’s message, I’ll point out that I’m also no civil engineer (nor a boorish engineer, for that matter).  But as I was driving alongside a resurfacing project, I noticed what seemed to me like an awful lot of asphalt being applied – as in, nearly a foot of asphalt.  So much that it was being applied in multiple passes.

Perhaps this much asphalt is appropriate when the road is unlevel or low – but this particular stretch of highway was relatively flat, with lowered shoulders.   And the incredible layers of asphalt went on for miles and miles.  I’d just chalk it up to a strange thing if I only saw it once in my travels, but I saw three or four extended construction projects, all attributed to ARRA, that used similar amounts of layered asphalt.

Again, not an engineer here, nor am I someone who has ever built or resurfaced a road, but it seems to me like this is overkill, perhaps a way to squeeze more money out of a project that likely didn’t need to be done in the first place.

Has anyone else noticed this?

I hope someone can correct my impression.

Random Thoughts and Links

royal links by danperryHere’s an excellent blog post over on the Keener Financial blog from a colleague, Jean Keener, who is a fellow Garrett Planning Network member.  This post is about 10 Tools to Build an Emergency Fund – and contains some very good tips on this important subject.

Also, my friend Helen Maynard over at Affine Financial Services just wrote about a unique way that Bostonians can utilize a grass roots effort to stimulate local business as well as to benefit along in the process.  Her post can be found here.

Along those lines, I recently became aware of a project going on here in Central Illinois, called the Capital Area Independent Business Alliance.  This group is promoting a “Buy Local” initiative, and challenges us during the week of July 1 to 7, to spend at least 50¢ from every dollar at local (truly local, not franchises or chains) businesses.  Interesting campaign, sounds like a good idea!

Reading through some articles recently, this one from Kiplinger caught my eye – Why I Would Avoid Index Funds – by Steven Goldberg, who quite often seems downright sane in his writing, but misses the mark on this one, at least with his first point.  It seems that Mr. Goldberg’s logic is that these funds he’s pushing have already experienced losses over the past year, so from a tax standpoint they should be very good investments.  So far, so good – he’s right, that particular issue would be helpful to a new investor.

However (and there’s always a however in life, right?) apparently if you follow Mr. Goldberg’s advice you’d have already been invested in these same funds (he says so in the very last paragraph) and as such you’d have been paying the extra costs for the dismal return and the tax break would look more like a consolation prize at this point.  Seems like the point would have been taken a little more seriously had that last paragraph been excluded.

Okay, that’s all for now – let me know if you have interesting links to share!

Is the US a Banana Republic?

banana-republic-by-laszlo-photoIn last month’s Atlantic Monthly there was an article by Simon Johnson entitled The Quiet Coup.  What I found especially intriguing about this article is the strong case that Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, makes in comparing the US, with our recent economic difficulties, to emerging economies.  Johnson should know what an emerging economy looks like, in his job at the IMF he was continuously being asked to bail out the likes of South Korea, Malaysia, Russia, and Argentina from frighteningly similar circumstances.

The most troubling aspect is the intertwined involvement of the financial giants with our government.  As Johnson relates, this could be equated to the organized crime syndicates or drug kingpins of a third world country having the politicians in their breast pocket.  Wall Street has developed into a breeding ground for politicos, and much of the bailout activity has reflected that, given the friendly terms being received by the huge banks and insurance companies.

Johnson argues that the only effective way to deal with the situation is exactly the same way the IMF has dealt with the same thing time after time:  nationalize the troubled banks and break them up as necessary.  Unfortunately, it looks like we’ll continue on the present track of pussy-footing around with the banks, offering bailouts, watering down regulation updates, and generally not admitting to the scope of the problem.  

And that’s just the first step – the second is to subvert the present influence that these financial giants have over public policy.  The root of the problem is that these institutions have been allowed to become “too big to fail” – we need to build into our regulatory system methods to keep the size issue from becoming a global economic threat.  

Very interesting and sobering read, indeed.  What do you think?

Credit Card Industry Reform

credit-card-roullete-again-by-moacirpdsp

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By now you’ve likely heard about the reforms planned for the credit card industry.  Mr. Obama has come in and saved the day for us poor, disheveled credit card users.  Why, we’re all going to benefit from these changes… right?

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Wrong (or at least that’s how I’m reading it).

So here are the major tenets of this legislation:

  • cc companies must give 45 days’ notice before increasing rates on an account
  • new limits on the penalties and fees that the cc company can charge
  • an account must be 60 days behind in payments before the cc company can increase rates
  • after 6 months at an increased rate (due to late or non-payment) if the account has maintained good standing, the rate can be reduced

What’s not said in this legislation is how the cc companies are going to pay for this imposed largesse.  How about:

  • new, higher annual fees just to have an account
  • reduced “grace period” – possibly even eliminated, meaning that if you use a credit card, you are charged interest from the date of purchase, rather than the date of the bill
  • other unknown ways to spread the cost of credit from the users abusers of credit to the folks who pay their bill in full each month

Now, I guess this isn’t necessarily wrong or bad business.  After all, the folks that pay their credit card bill in full every month have been the beneficiaries of a “float” – that is, essentially you’ve got free money to work with for 28 to 30 days.  So, even though we’ll experience relative depravation when this goes away, it’s not like it’s a God-given right of ours to have free short-term financing.

Maybe I’m just cynical, but I expect this legislation to cause more folks to stop using credit cards and begin using cash and/or debit cards, at least until the fees start moving to those items as well.  Cash is more costly (in the long run) to handle, so the trickle-down effect will be an increase in overhead, more than likely.

What do you think?  Leave a comment!